Help me decide on my general marathon strategy

I’m (41 male) in the throws of trying to qualify for Boston, my time would have to be under 3:10 plus buffer. I’ve run 3 marathons: Disney in January 2023 with a 3:27; Richmond VA in November 2023 with a 3:10:07; and a 3:16 in Jim Thorpe PA in April 2024 where I was a bit sick and messed up my pacing big time! A few weeks before Jim Thorpe I ran a 1:04:54 10 miler, which was a 6:30 min/mile pace that I felt like was a great set up for an under 3:10 marathon. My training went quite well, peaking at 61 miles and doing many weeks alternating between 50 and 60 miles. I’ll typically run one speed session on Wednesdays, and every other weekend would be either a long, slow run (up to 22 miles) or a pace run with MP and faster up to 16 miles.

Boston 2025 would require a BQ sometime before mid September this year, about 13 weeks to go. I took 5 weeks after Jim Thorpe for active recovery, getting up to 25 miles per week and I did 30 mile last week. I’m debating the Erie Marathon on September 8th, which seems like a good race as long as it’s not too hot. I think I won’t be able to decide until I get a few more good pace runs in- this past weekend I tried a 12 mile run with 8 at MP, but couldn’t quite get into the groove and was doing mostly 8 min/mile instead of the 7:10 I need. I have i the past had fairly long recoveries from prior races, so I think I won’t be able to judge my ability to do Erie for another 2-4 weeks. If I can’t get back into those pace runs I think I’ll have to forget that race and try again for Boston in 2026.

I’d appreciate any thoughts or feedback on the following:

1) Is 19 weeks between PR attempts too aggressive?

2) Any thoughts about the Erie marathon, especially weather and pace groups? Heat and humidity are killers to me, and I think the pacers at Richmond really helped me get to my 3:10.

3) General advice about how I should approach this goal- I’ve heard lots of stories of folks getting trapped in a cycle of trying to qualify and it sucking the life out of their running journey, and I’m certainly worried about that but am also grateful for the goal to strive towards.

Thanks for any feedback you have!